Gold futures prices have been making all-time highs recently, but before you are tempted to get on the “gold train”, you might want to study the historical gold price charts from 1975 to 2001, a 27-years period and some theories about gold futures price cycles.
What Causes Price Cycles?
Human beings prefer to be in a social environment, where they can share thoughts and ideas, that rubbed off from one another.
It is no wonder that there is extreme optimism of futures market participants at the end of a bullish cycle and their corresponding extreme pessimism at the end of a bearish cycle.
With the complexity of the different futures markets today, it is harder to determine the start or end of a cycle until it happened. That is when everyone said that they should have seen it coming.
Historical Gold Price Charts Show Economic Cycle (50-60 Years)
Nikolai Kondratieff (NK), a Soviet economist, discovered economic cycles, each 50-60 years in length. At the start of NK’s cycle, inflation rate rises with the expansion of capital funds and increase in economic activities. There is also a great attraction of investments all-round. The inflation reached a peak, represented by over-production, excessive capacity and declining profits.
Deflation follows with inflation rate declines near the end, and many people are into savings. NK noted that gold futures price is the highest at the end of a down cycle and lowest at the end of an up cycle. Capital funds are measured in the amount of currencies. As currencies are not pegged to gold now, NK’s cycle theory has lost some significance.
Gold Futures Price Cycle (34 Years)
To better predict the economic cycles, a theory based on the shorter gold futures price cycle of 34 years was suggested. This is with the observation of the gold crisis in the 1933-1934 period, the end of the Bretton Woods system in 1967-1968 period, and the economic crisis in 2001-2002 period. Each happening 34 years apart.
It is also noted that the end of the Bretton Woods system made the US dollar a paper currency that is backed by the US government.
Gold Futures Price Cycle (8 Years/9 Years)
Another gold futures price cycle theory points to a 8 year cycle. You can see price bottoming in the gold futures historical price charts at years 1976, 1984, 1992, 2000. There is some discrepancy in the length of the price cycle and some have determined it as a 9 year price cycle instead. Within the 9 year cycles, 9 intermediate cycles of 1 year each can be found.
Price of Gold is Equal to All Circulated Money (plus Future Money)
In 2009, Michael Maloney, author of a popular book on investing in gold and silver, talks about people in the past invest in gold during periods of inflation and deflation.
He said gold price is about 20% into the gold cycle and it will rise to $15,000 in order to cover all the stimulus money printed by the Federal Reserve plus the future money or credit used by the United States.
Study the Historical Gold Price Charts
Price cycle theories are not exact science but are good starting points for studying the gold futures historical price charts.
| Standard Gold Contract | ||
| Symbol | GC | |
| Per Contract Size | 100 troy ounces | |
| Price Quotation | U.S. Dollars and Cents per troy ounce | |
| Minimum Price Fluctuation | $0.10 per troy ounce | |
| Termination of Trading | Trading terminates on the third last business day of the delivery month. | |
| Mini Gold Contract | ||
| Symbol | QO | |
| Per Contract Size | 50 troy ounces | |
| Price Quotation | U.S. Dollars and Cents per troy ounce | |
| Minimum Price Fluctuation | $0.25 per troy ounce | |
| Termination of Trading | Trading terminates on the third last business day of the delivery month. | |
Year 1975
Year 1976
Year 1977
Year 1978
Year 1979
Year 1980
Year 1981
Year 1982
Year 1983
Year 1984
Year 1985
Year 1986
Year 1987
Year 1988
Year 1989
Year 1990
Year 1991
Year 1992
Year 1993
Year 1994
Year 1995
Year 1996
Year 1997
Year 1998
Year 1999
Year 2000
Year 2001
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Anyone who wants to trade in gold futures are advised to study the above historical gold price charts carefully before coming up with their gold futures trading system.
